Warmer, Wetter Climate to Impact Thunderstorm Intensity

By Kylie Wolfe

Previous studies have discussed how a warmer climate will impact the continental United States, revealing that a continued rise in both temperature and precipitation may cause thunderstorms to increase in intensity.

As tropical storms make landfall and other extreme weather makes the news, understanding the science behind these forces may shed light on what’s to come.

Forecast the Future

One study conducted at Colorado State University in 2017 produced detailed simulations of future weather patterns using the Weather Research and Forecasting model developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. They kept the natural environment in mind, including cloud processes and topographical features, which allowed for more accurate results across the entire country.

The researchers’ forecasts showed that weak-to-moderate thunderstorms would decrease in frequency as intense storm systems became more common. The resulting increases in rainfall, lightning, and strong winds can ultimately contribute to more flash floods, fires, and tornados.

Scientists attribute these projected weather patterns to changing thermodynamic conditions. Warmer, wetter weather increases the amount of energy in the atmosphere, and consistently warmer temperatures will maintain that high level of energy and release it in the form of severe thunderstorms. Maintaining this energy balance is what drives different weather patterns.

For example, because warmer air holds more moisture, climate change can produce more intense storms that carry larger amounts of rain. But how these findings translate into what happens in the real world may need further exploration.

A Perfect Storm

A new study published in Nature Climate Change in 2023 assessed thunderstorm winds, specifically straight-line winds, and the damage they’re causing. According to the research, these winds have increased in the central United States over the past four decades.

In the past, it was much harder to study these hazards, but modern technology is making it possible to consider tornados, hail, and other storm types. Even still, weather can be unpredictable.

“Wind is something extremely difficult to assess and is the peril we probably know the least about in terms of potential change due to anthropogenic warming,” Victor Gensini, professor of meteorology at Northern Illinois University, told The Washington Post.

Moving forward, it’s important that scientists continue to assess the physical processes of clouds to better gauge the consequences of climate change. Meanwhile, researchers can conduct further simulations and create computer models to gain more insights about general weather and storm patterns.